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On the Role of the Manufacturing Industries in Economic Resilience.
Arbesleitner, Roland ; Young, Mitchell (advisor) ; Svoboda, Karel (referee) ; Figueira, Filipa (referee)
Economic resilience has recently enjoyed increased popularity in academic discourse, especially after the 2008 Global Crisis played havoc across the globe, but is as of now still in its infancy: A commonly agreed upon definition is yet to be found, and papers devoted to this concept are still rather scarce. It is commonly known that the manufacturing industries in European economies have generally been in decline for decades, and that they have primarily been replaced by the services sector. It has however been argued in the past that due to relatively high sunk costs, there is increased incentive for investors to keep manufacturing enterprises afloat during difficult times as long as possible, making them less likely to go out of business compared to others, thereby minimizing the initial blow of an economic shock to the respective economy and subsequently foster recovery. These assumptions are being examined in this paper by analysing data from the EU-28 starting at the outbreak of the 2008 crisis until 2015, followed by an investigation of individual economies in greater detail. The results show that more industrialised economies tend to have fared better during the crisis years and also managed to recover sooner.
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What explains different duration of the Great Recession across countries?
Petrů, Vojtěch ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Hlaváček, Michal (referee)
The research concerning differences in duration of the Great Recession is limited and inconclusive. We define duration of crisis as the count of years lost due to the crisis, and estimate the determinants of crisis duration on the dataset of 54 developed and developing countries. This thesis contrasts with previous literature by employing Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to accommodate for the large amount of potential explanatory variables and to address model uncertainty. Moreover, an innovative measure of export competitiveness, which accounts for the changes in non-price factors such as quality, is used. The results bring suggestive evidence of positive impact of developed financial markets, high share of private consumption and improvements in export competitiveness. We also find positive effect of fiscal policy stimulus once it is controlled for the feedback loop of uncertainty which appears when heavily indebted countries finance fiscal stimulus through issuance of additional debt. Lastly, it needs to be concluded, that the results are not robust to all prior specifications. In particular, the more restrictive Beta binomial model prior shrinks the statistical significance of aforementioned results heavily. JEL Classification F12, F21, F23, H25, H71, H87 Keywords Great Recession, Crisis duration, Economic...
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On the Role of the Manufacturing Industries in Economic Resilience.
Arbesleitner, Roland ; Young, Mitchell (advisor) ; Svoboda, Karel (referee) ; Figueira, Filipa (referee)
Economic resilience has recently enjoyed increased popularity in academic discourse, especially after the 2008 Global Crisis played havoc across the globe, but is as of now still in its infancy: A commonly agreed upon definition is yet to be found, and papers devoted to this concept are still rather scarce. It is commonly known that the manufacturing industries in European economies have generally been in decline for decades, and that they have primarily been replaced by the services sector. It has however been argued in the past that due to relatively high sunk costs, there is increased incentive for investors to keep manufacturing enterprises afloat during difficult times as long as possible, making them less likely to go out of business compared to others, thereby minimizing the initial blow of an economic shock to the respective economy and subsequently foster recovery. These assumptions are being examined in this paper by analysing data from the EU-28 starting at the outbreak of the 2008 crisis until 2015, followed by an investigation of individual economies in greater detail. The results show that more industrialised economies tend to have fared better during the crisis years and also managed to recover sooner.
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